Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

B1 0xb18c…5b2e sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$397 (+9%) realized +$346 · open +$51

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate84%16W / 3L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$216per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+1.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+11.7%	+1.0%	84%	47%	-0.4%
≤30d	19	+11.7%	+1.0%	84%	47%	-0.4%
≤90d	19	+11.7%	+1.0%	84%	47%	-0.4%
all	19	+11.7%	+1.0%	84%	47%	-0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.0%	47%	-0.4%
10%	-8.6%	26%	-9.9%
15%	-17.5%	21%	-18.6%
20%	-25.6%	11%	-26.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

44% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +9% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$79 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$654

Realized+$346

Unrealized+$51

Win rate (resolved)84%

Wins / losses16 / 3

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage6d

Avg bet$216

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	91¢	99¢	$603	$654	+$51 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe	Jun 20	$133	−$28	-21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$150	+$18	+12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$36	+$29	+79%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As	Jun 19	$500	+$86	+17%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter	Jun 19	$204	−$204	-100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$45	+$15	+34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	Jun 18	$688	+$278	+40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$150	+$16	+11%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame	Jun 17	$178	+$17	+10%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl	Jun 17	$259	+$22	+8%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer	Jun 16	$90	+$8	+8%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner	Jun 16	$252	+$7	+3%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close	Jun 16	$222	+$21	+10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$45	+$17	+38%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 15	$201	+$21	+11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$24	+$13	+52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$49	−$4	-8%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close	Jun 15	$253	+$21	+8%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin	Jun 15	$230	+$23	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY Leviatán Esports	94¢	$500	51m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY Leviatán Esports	81¢	$105	2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe	SELL OG	73¢	$105	4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe	BUY OG	92¢	$133	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$150	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	55¢	$36	25h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As	BUY Execration	85¢	$500	30h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter	BUY Yangon Galacticos	93¢	$204	33h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	34¢	$225	2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	SELL Yakult Brothers	62¢	$226	2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Yakult Brothers	80¢	$295	2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	SELL Vici Gaming	42¢	$97	2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	71¢	$167	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$150	2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	74¢	$45	2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame	SELL LGD Gaming	100¢	$195	2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame	BUY LGD Gaming	91¢	$178	3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl	BUY Vici Gaming	92¢	$259	3d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer	BUY LGD Gaming	92¢	$90	4d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	97¢	$252	4d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close	SELL Game Master	100¢	$243	4d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close	BUY Game Master	91¢	$222	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL G2	100¢	$62	4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Paper Rex	100¢	$222	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY G2	72¢	$45	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	84¢	$45	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	91¢	$49	4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	90¢	$201	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	65¢	$24	4d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close	BUY Vici Gaming	92¢	$253	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.14 · official $613.56 · 43 history records