Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B1 0xb189…3731 crypto 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%369W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$41
sports 47% −$35
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 90 -0.9% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.2%
all 371 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$52 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses369 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)371 / 372
History coverage377d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 12? Jun 12 $132 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 27 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 24? May 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? May 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 21? May 21 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 20? May 20 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 18? May 18 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 17? May 17 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 16? May 16 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $126 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 9? May 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 6? May 06 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5? May 05 $125 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $136 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $136 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $135 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $134 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $131 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $131 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $131 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $130 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $130 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $130 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $128 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.27 · official $136.27 (match) · 759 history records