Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb187…0ab8 sports 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,256 (+5%) realized +$3,316 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 96L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$21,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$550
7 days+$1,825
14 days−$1,291
30 days−$879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2,737
crypto 23% +$83
sports 22% +$6,513
tech 4% +$77
finance 2% −$433
politics 1% −$487
culture 1% +$26
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$16
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.7% -3.4% 58% 58% +17.6%
≤30d 17 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 47% -16.8%
≤90d 60 -24.9% -32.0% 30% 25% +5.7%
all 201 -12.3% -20.7% 52% 33% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 33% -3.3%
10% -28.2% 19% -12.5%
15% -35.2% 15% -21.0%
20% -41.5% 10% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$90 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$21,025
Realized+$3,316
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions13
Markets (closed)201 / 214
History coverage183d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9,473 $7,667 −$1,806 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,813 $2,970 +$1,156 (+64%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,341 $2,616 +$275 (+12%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $1,482 $2,156 +$674 (+45%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $1,360 $1,597 +$237 (+17%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $690 $925 +$235 (+34%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $720 $845 +$125 (+17%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $690 $797 +$107 (+15%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $700 $635 −$65 (-9%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $556 $506 −$50 (-9%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1,100 $190 −$910 (-83%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $25 −$35 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $610 −$217 -36%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $459 −$333 -72%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $908 +$337 +37%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,553 +$698 +45%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $766 +$466 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $763 +$560 +73%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $211 +$96 +45%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $631 +$280 +44%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +104%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,210 −$3,116 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,132 −$66 -6%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 26 $457 +$490 +107%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $105 −$12 -11%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? May 24 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $5,366 +$5,257 +98%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 11 $379 −$312 -82%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $42 −$32 -75%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? May 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 09 $9 −$8 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 09 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 May 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie May 03 $200 +$4 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $562 +$216 +38%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
ChatGPT Outage by March 15? Apr 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Saint-Malo: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Alice Tubello Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 29 $21 −$21 -100%
La Bisbal: Jil Teichmann vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Apr 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $58 3h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $393 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $331 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $127 47h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,245 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,251 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $271 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $590 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $861 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,232 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $509 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $166 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,302 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,025.38 · official $21,047.81 (match) · 712 history records