Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B1 0xb186…4bea other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$378 (+16%) realized +$382 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$161
sports 41% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 16 +21.0% +9.5% 100% 100% +9.4%
all 16 +21.0% +9.5% 100% 100% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 100% +9.4%
10% -1.0% 44% -1.1%
15% -10.6% 6% -10.6%
20% -19.3% 0% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized+$382
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage68d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $92 +$12 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$25 +25%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $64 +$28 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $126 +$20 +16%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $101 +$25 +24%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $100 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $174 +$53 +31%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Apr 18 $200 +$43 +21%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $75 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $101 +$15 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $135 +$18 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $100 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 21h
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $92 56d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 56d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 57d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 69¢ $64 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 60d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $126 60d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 60d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 62d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 76¢ $74 62d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 76¢ $100 63d
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils BUY Arthur Fils 81¢ $100 63d
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils BUY Arthur Fils 83¢ $100 63d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 65d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $101 66d
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Spirit 90¢ $75 66d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 67d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 81¢ $100 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin BUY Yes 88¢ $135 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.39 · official $536.39 (match) · 44 history records