Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb185…1b86 other 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$386 (+1%) realized +$589 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%375W / 17L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$130
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$219
finance 28% +$52
sports 21% +$87
tech 1% +$9
world 0% +$8
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.5% -12.7% 92% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 104 +4.7% -5.2% 98% 10% -8.2%
≤90d 307 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 4% -8.6%
all 392 +2.1% -7.6% 96% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 6% -8.4%
10% -16.4% 2% -17.2%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.2%
20% -31.9% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,749
Realized+$589
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses375 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions19
Markets (closed)392 / 411
History coverage122d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? No 98¢ 97¢ $374 $371 −$4 (-1%)
Will Utah Black Diamonds finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? No 97¢ 73¢ $418 $315 −$104 (-25%)
Will Chicago Slice finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? No 98¢ 78¢ $296 $237 −$59 (-20%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Texas Ranchers vs St. Louis Shock St. Louis Shock 91¢ 94¢ $151 $156 +$5 (+3%)
Will Florida Smash finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? No 98¢ 99¢ $113 $115 +$2 (+1%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Chicago Slice vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Los Angeles Mad Drops 91¢ 84¢ $114 $106 −$8 (-7%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Florida Smash vs Chicago Slice Chicago Slice 99¢ 90¢ $115 $105 −$10 (-9%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Florida Smash Brooklyn Pickleball Team 91¢ 88¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? No 82¢ 86¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+6%)
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? No 98¢ 97¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs Florida Smash Los Angeles Mad Drops 93¢ 84¢ $63 $58 −$6 (-9%)
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Palm Beach Royals St. Louis Shock 86¢ 76¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Orlando Squeeze vs St. Louis Shock St. Louis Shock 82¢ 51¢ $41 $26 −$16 (-38%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Utah Black Diamonds vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Los Angeles Mad Drops 82¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will St. Louis Shock finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? Yes 34¢ 45¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will Los Angeles Mad Drops finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? Yes 29¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Jersey 5s finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Jun 15 $60 +$3 +4%
Will Columbus Sliders finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleba Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Columbus Sliders Jun 15 $371 +$7 +2%
MLP Austin: Texas Ranchers vs New Jersey 5s Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Will SoCal Hard Eights finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 13 $260 +$7 +3%
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic Jun 13 $453 +$10 +2%
Will Texas Ranchers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Jun 13 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Bay Area Breakers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Atlanta Bouncers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleba Jun 13 $352 +$10 +3%
Will Florida Smash finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Jun 13 $143 +$4 +3%
Will Dallas Flash finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball A Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will California Black Bears finish in 1st place at the Major League Pi Jun 13 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Carolina Hogs finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Jun 13 $155 +$2 +2%
MLP Austin: Columbus Sliders vs SoCal Hard Eights Jun 13 $60 +$5 +9%
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Atlanta Bouncers Jun 13 $202 +$10 +5%
MLP Austin: Florida Smash vs Texas Ranchers Jun 12 $53 +$1 +1%
MLP Austin: Carolina Hogs vs California Black Bears Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
MLP Austin: California Black Bears vs Columbus Sliders Jun 12 $213 +$14 +7%
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Florida Smash Jun 12 $690 +$14 +2%
MLP Austin: Atlanta Bouncers vs Bay Area Breakers Jun 12 $85 −$44 -52%
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Bay Area Breakers Jun 12 $127 +$5 +4%
MLP Austin: Florida Smash vs Dallas Flash Jun 12 $93 −$88 -95%
MLP Austin: Columbus Sliders vs Carolina Hogs Jun 12 $422 +$17 +4%
MLP Austin: Miami Pickleball Club vs California Black Bears Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Jun 08 $128 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Louis: Palm Beach Royals vs Las Vegas Night Owls Jun 08 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Los Angeles Mad Drops finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic Jun 07 $121 +$3 +2%
Will St. Louis Shock finish in 1st place at the Major League Picklebal Jun 07 $132 +$7 +5%
MLP St. Louis: Utah Black Diamonds vs Atlanta Bouncers Jun 07 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Orlando Squeeze finish in 1st place at the Major League Picklebal Jun 07 $619 +$4 +1%
Will Phoenix Flames finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Jun 07 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Utah Black Diamonds finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickl Jun 07 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 07 $531 +$5 +1%
Will SoCal Hard Eights finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 07 $230 +$4 +2%
Will Las Vegas Night Owls finish in 1st place at the Major League Pick Jun 07 $94 +$2 +2%
MLP St. Louis: Orlando Squeeze vs Bay Area Breakers Jun 07 $102 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Palm Beach Royals Jun 07 $191 +$10 +5%
MLP St. Louis: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs SoCal Hard Eights Jun 06 $265 +$10 +4%
MLP St. Louis: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Phoenix Flames Jun 06 $122 +$6 +5%
MLP St. Louis: Bay Area Breakers vs Atlanta Bouncers Jun 06 $81 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Louis: Orlando Squeeze vs St. Louis Shock Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
MLP St. Louis: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs Las Vegas Night Owls Jun 06 $216 +$17 +8%
MLP St. Louis: Phoenix Flames vs Utah Black Diamonds Jun 06 $109 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Louis: SoCal Hard Eights vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team Jun 06 $312 +$7 +2%
MLP St. Louis: Atlanta Bouncers vs St. Louis Shock Jun 06 $1,184 +$4 +0%
MLP St. Louis: Utah Black Diamonds vs SoCal Hard Eights Jun 06 $97 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Louis: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team Jun 06 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Bay Area Breakers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 06 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Atlanta Bouncers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleba Jun 06 $49 +$1 +3%
MLP St. Louis: Palm Beach Royals vs Orlando Squeeze Jun 05 $94 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Chicago Slice finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball BUY No 99¢ $82 1h
MLP St. Petersburg: Florida Smash vs Chicago Slice BUY Chicago Slice 99¢ $78 1h
MLP St. Petersburg: Florida Smash vs Chicago Slice BUY Chicago Slice 98¢ $37 1h
Will Utah Black Diamonds finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickl BUY No 99¢ $90 8h
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
MLP St. Petersburg: Orlando Squeeze vs St. Louis Shock BUY St. Louis Shock 82¢ $41 8h
Will Los Angeles Mad Drops finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY Yes 29¢ $2 26h
Will St. Louis Shock finish in 1st place at the Major League Picklebal BUY Yes 34¢ $3 26h
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb BUY No 99¢ $25 26h
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb BUY No 99¢ $76 26h
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb BUY No 98¢ $99 26h
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will Utah Black Diamonds finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickl BUY No 98¢ $98 26h
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb BUY No 98¢ $5 26h
MLP St. Petersburg: Chicago Slice vs Los Angeles Mad Drops BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 92¢ $92 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Chicago Slice vs Los Angeles Mad Drops BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 88¢ $22 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs Florida Smash BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 95¢ $8 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs Florida Smash BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 95¢ $33 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Los Angeles Mad Drops vs Florida Smash BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 90¢ $23 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Utah Black Diamonds vs Los Angeles Mad Drops BUY Los Angeles Mad Drops 82¢ $16 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Palm Beach Royals BUY St. Louis Shock 91¢ $21 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Palm Beach Royals BUY St. Louis Shock 82¢ $12 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: St. Louis Shock vs Palm Beach Royals BUY St. Louis Shock 78¢ $4 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Florida Smash BUY Brooklyn Pickleball Team 92¢ $46 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Florida Smash BUY Brooklyn Pickleball Team 91¢ $23 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Florida Smash BUY Brooklyn Pickleball Team 90¢ $6 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Florida Smash BUY Brooklyn Pickleball Team 84¢ $4 33h
MLP St. Petersburg: Texas Ranchers vs St. Louis Shock BUY St. Louis Shock 92¢ $92 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,749.38 · official $1,750.50 (match) · 1515 history records