Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb185…0025 crypto 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-2%) realized −$70 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%54W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$200
politics 21% −$43
other 11% +$40
economics 4% −$4
sports 2% −$103
world 1% +$4
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 50% -18.2%
≤30d 33 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 48% -14.7%
≤90d 37 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 46% -16.0%
all 127 -14.1% -22.2% 43% 39% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 39% -16.8%
10% -29.7% 34% -24.8%
15% -36.5% 29% -32.1%
20% -42.7% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses54 / 73
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage524d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $150 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $119 +$59 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET Jun 25 $166 −$50 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$9 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $98 +$100 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$56 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $67 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $263 −$43 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $44 +$16 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$91 +430%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $48 +$25 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $27 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $49 +$32 +64%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 22 $85 +$50 +58%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 10 $60 +$25 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 14 $12 +$9 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $124 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $178 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $119 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $100 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $115 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $135 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $101 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $42 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $82 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.50 (match) · 257 history records