Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb17d…59ae world 215 markets active 3d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,619 (+8%) realized +$9,332 · open +$287
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate81%124W / 29L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$557per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$17,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,216
14 days+$2,716
30 days+$5,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3,606
other 12% −$1,311
culture 11% +$1,859
politics 4% +$443
sports 3% +$718
crypto 3% +$2,683
tech 1% +$19
finance 1% +$163
weather 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +5.5% -4.5% 75% 46% +2.0%
≤30d 107 +1.1% -8.6% 77% 40% -1.6%
≤90d 144 +2.9% -6.9% 80% 42% -1.4%
all 153 +3.1% -6.7% 81% 40% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 40% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 23% -11.2%
15% -23.8% 14% -19.8%
20% -31.3% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$813) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$204 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$17,116
Realized+$9,332
Unrealized+$287
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses124 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions62
Markets (closed)153 / 215
History coverage97d
Avg bet$557
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $2,640 $2,745 +$105 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,616 $1,656 +$40 (+2%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 87¢ 95¢ $992 $1,083 +$91 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,031 $930 −$100 (-10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $584 $598 +$14 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $553 $568 +$15 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 94¢ $524 $561 +$37 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $354 $398 +$44 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $384 $398 +$14 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $368 $393 +$25 (+7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $322 $382 +$60 (+19%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $372 $379 +$6 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $375 $375 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $338 $362 +$24 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $276 $300 +$24 (+9%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $296 $300 +$3 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $296 $299 +$3 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 99¢ $249 $296 +$47 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $245 $263 +$18 (+7%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $216 $243 +$27 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 69¢ 60¢ $276 $238 −$38 (-14%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $134 $200 +$66 (+49%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $194 $199 +$5 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $194 $199 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $235 +$65 +28%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $146 +$54 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $518 +$132 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $294 +$106 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,451 +$149 +10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,332 +$68 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $764 +$36 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $372 +$28 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,173 +$130 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $389 −$55 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $894 −$23 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $253 +$37 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $186 −$20 -11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $423 +$444 +105%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $160 +$38 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,365 −$176 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,429 −$93 -6%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $174 −$5 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $194 −$3 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $179 −$179 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $63 −$26 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $104 +$46 +44%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $393 +$7 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,980 +$25 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $837 +$91 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $256 +$34 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $204 +$240 +117%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,284 +$871 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,100 +$135 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $165 +$149 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $580 +$53 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,358 +$495 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $94 +$115 +122%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $1,050 +$88 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 +$30 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $886 +$586 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $307 +$74 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$15 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $899 −$423 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $266 +$18 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $536 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $3 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 1¢ $21 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 1¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 1¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 1¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 2¢ $19 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 2¢ $22 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $134 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 2¢ $6 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 2¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 4¢ $12 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 4¢ $12 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $552 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,115.93 · official $17,115.94 (match) · 1531 history records