Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb17d…02f1 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$148 (+9%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$272
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$47
sports 30% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +22.0% +10.4% 46% 46% +17.7%
≤30d 23 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% +1.0%
≤90d 23 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% +1.0%
all 23 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 43% +1.0%
10% -21.4% 39% -8.7%
15% -29.0% 35% -17.5%
20% -35.9% 26% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$40 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage11d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$36 +18%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$113 +550%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$6 -23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$41 +81%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$44 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 22m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $92 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records