Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb17c…d2ea sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-46%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$108
other 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.1% +14.1% 18% 18% -52.4%
≤30d 11 +26.1% +14.1% 18% 18% -52.4%
≤90d 11 +26.1% +14.1% 18% 18% -52.4%
all 11 +26.1% +14.1% 18% 18% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 18% -52.4%
10% +3.1% 18% -57.0%
15% -6.8% 18% -61.1%
20% -16.0% 18% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$28 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$33 +323%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 +$89 +864%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $144 −$140 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $43 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 70¢ $99 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 7¢ $10 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $10 2h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $10 7h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $10 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $10 26h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 5¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 35h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 6¢ $10 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 7¢ $10 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 6¢ $10 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 4¢ $0 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 6¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 2¢ $41 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 5¢ $51 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records