Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb17a…a951
other · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$7
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 3 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Kings Kings 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Kings Jazz $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Novak Djokovic $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Aurora 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +185%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$17 +74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Charlotte 49ers vs. UAB Blazers Mar 16 $1 +$2 +177%
LoL: Witchcraft vs Baam Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Mar 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $1 $0 -50%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $1 $0 -50%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting? Mar 13 $2 +$4 +217%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 10-16? Mar 13 $1 $0 -26%
Neutrl FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 13 $1 $0 -38%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Mar 13 $1 $0 -18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March Mar 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
National Cricket League, Women: Queensland Fire vs Victoria Mar 12 $1 $0 +48%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $1 $0 +14%
San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos Mar 12 $1 +$3 +260%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 m Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 17 be between 2,600, Mar 12 $1 $0 -58%
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Mar 12 $0 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 12? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 11 $18 +$1 +3%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) win the most seats in th Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) win the most seats in t Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% −$2
sports 9% −$4
politics 5% −$6
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% −$2
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 29¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $35 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY $6 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $1 7h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada $2 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8h
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Jazz $1 89d
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Jazz $1 89d
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Jazz 17¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -48.7% -53.6% 18% 18% -18.4%
≤30d 11 -48.7% -53.6% 18% 18% -18.4%
≤90d 13 -35.3% -41.5% 23% 23% -19.6%
all 44 -33.5% -39.8% 23% 16% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 16% -20.7%
10% -45.6% 14% -28.3%
15% -50.8% 14% -35.2%
20% -55.7% 11% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.91 · official $27.31 · 89 history records