Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb176…fcb2 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$274 (+7%) realized +$244 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$238
14 days+$238
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$390
other 17% −$204
crypto 3% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -41.8% -47.3% 31% 31% -3.0%
≤30d 13 -41.8% -47.3% 31% 31% -3.0%
≤90d 13 -41.8% -47.3% 31% 31% -3.0%
all 13 -41.8% -47.3% 31% 31% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 31% -3.0%
10% -52.4% 31% -12.2%
15% -57.0% 31% -20.7%
20% -61.2% 31% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$413 vs −$157 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage14d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $279 +$179 (+179%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Over 47¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $190 $78 −$111 (-59%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$83 +68%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $1,200 +$987 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$197 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $255 −$250 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $349 +$397 +114%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $301 −$296 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $200 +$186 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 15m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $205 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $10 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 28¢ $51 28h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $997 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $200 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $102 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $304 3d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $153 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $203 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $745 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $349 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $183 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $101 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $386 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $199 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $99 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $101 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $95 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.47 · official $519.47 (match) · 41 history records