Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B1 0xb175…0396 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,789 (-13%) realized −$3,783 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%40W / 13L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$155
14 days−$2,264
30 days−$1,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$2,825
other 49% −$1,156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.6% +27.2% 75% 75% -1.9%
≤30d 50 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 32% -16.2%
≤90d 53 -5.8% -14.8% 75% 34% -22.4%
all 53 -5.8% -14.8% 75% 34% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -22.4%
10% -22.9% 25% -29.8%
15% -30.4% 23% -36.6%
20% -37.2% 17% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$580 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$3,783
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses40 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage46d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 41¢ 40¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 +$97 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 +$102 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$105 +206%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $253 +$178 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $330 +$241 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $171 +$102 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $554 −$550 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $358 +$196 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $289 +$70 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $346 +$197 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $456 −$450 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $705 −$500 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $436 +$248 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $134 −$132 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,254 −$1,250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $155 +$2 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $400 +$5 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $390 +$35 +9%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $601 +$7 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,108 −$1,100 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $655 +$235 +36%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $306 +$2 +0%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $239 +$7 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,932 +$305 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,728 +$205 +12%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $493 +$7 +1%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $248 +$5 +2%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $46 +$2 +4%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $92 −$90 -98%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $644 +$4 +1%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $247 +$2 +1%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $247 +$3 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $551 +$437 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $531 +$19 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $520 +$10 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $250 +$8 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $269 +$48 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $115 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $76 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $70 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $152 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $253 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $330 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $171 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $122 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $554 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $358 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $289 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $346 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $308 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 68¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 62¢ $101 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $683 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 82¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $101 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $253 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $183 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $134 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.92 · official $325.92 (match) · 132 history records