Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B1 0xb172…7862 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$114 (-11%) realized +$98 · open −$212

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%12W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	32	+1.0%	-8.6%	38%	38%	-22.3%
≤30d	32	+1.0%	-8.6%	38%	38%	-22.3%
≤90d	32	+1.0%	-8.6%	38%	38%	-22.3%
all	32	+1.0%	-8.6%	38%	38%	-22.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	38%	-22.3%
10%	-17.4%	34%	-29.7%
15%	-25.4%	34%	-36.5%
20%	-32.7%	34%	-42.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +18% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized+$98

Unrealized−$212

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses12 / 20

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)32 / 35

History coverage6d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	64¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Austria leading at halftime? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$19	+94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$20	+$35	+172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$61	−$60	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$79	−$78	-98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$31	+$6	+18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	+$22	+108%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$71	+$44	+62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$17	+$14	+81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$40	−$40	-99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$41	−$40	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 13	$20	+$26	+130%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$46	−$45	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$20	+$56	+273%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$31	−$2	-7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$20	+$22	+107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$20	+$22	+107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$70	+$68	+97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$20	4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	0¢	$0	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	40¢	$10	15h
Austria leading at halftime? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	51¢	$20	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5	BUY Over	31¢	$1	16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	19¢	$4	40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$4	40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	48¢	$2	42h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	43¢	$10	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	50¢	$51	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$36	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	39¢	$43	3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	56¢	$59	3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$20	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$115	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$31	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	54¢	$17	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$40	3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$71	3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.33 · official $18.55 (match) · 55 history records