Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B1 0xb172…a0c6 other 15 markets active 1d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,045 (+86%) realized +$1,045 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$238
14 days+$550
30 days+$550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$238
sports 42% +$796
tech 3% $0
world 3% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +41.6% +28.1% 100% 100% +28.1%
≤30d 2 +115.0% +94.5% 100% 100% +58.0%
≤90d 8 +64.0% +48.3% 100% 50% +73.5%
all 15 +20.8% +9.3% 80% 27% +67.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 27% +67.0%
10% -1.1% 27% +51.1%
15% -10.7% 27% +36.5%
20% -19.4% 20% +23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$2 · ×36.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×144.05 per $1 lost it wins $144.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,045
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage169d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $571 +$238 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $166 +$313 +188%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $169 +$237 +140%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic May 16 $176 +$246 +140%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $340 in January? Jan 15 $17 $0 -1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition Jan 07 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records