Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb16b…3a57 weather 725 markets active 7h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$273 (-0%) realized −$179 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%656W / 35L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$176
14 days+$212
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$1,518
other 6% −$77
politics 4% −$76
sports 2% +$93
finance 2% +$28
world 1% −$373
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 4% -8.1%
≤30d 281 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 2% -10.2%
≤90d 691 +5.5% -4.5% 95% 3% -9.0%
all 691 +5.5% -4.5% 95% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 3% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 2% -17.7%
15% -22.0% 2% -25.7%
20% -29.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$2,878
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses656 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions34
Markets (closed)691 / 725
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$205
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 61¢ 64¢ $305 $318 +$12 (+4%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $295 $290 −$5 (-2%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $226 $225 −$1 (-1%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $196 $195 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $140 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $94 +$44 (+88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+57%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$5 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $93 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $413 +$146 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $264 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $211 +$11 +5%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $237 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 7? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 12 $76 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 10? Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 12 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 7? Jun 12 $245 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 12 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 12 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 12 $368 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $420 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $434 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 12 $533 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 12 $655 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $553 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 61¢ $305 9h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $500 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $98 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $110 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 35h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $36 38h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $19 38h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $10 38h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 91¢ $11 38h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Refuser 6¢ $4 38h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 95¢ $475 38h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $23 38h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 15¢ $3 39h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 17¢ $3 39h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 24¢ $2 39h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 29¢ $4 39h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 65¢ $325 40h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $64 41h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,877.54 · official $2,877.54 (match) · 3500 history records