Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb16a…e889 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-42%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
sports 7% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -65.9%
≤30d 4 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -65.9%
≤90d 4 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -65.9%
all 4 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 25% -65.9%
10% -50.1% 25% -69.2%
15% -55.0% 25% -72.2%
20% -59.4% 25% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.22 · official $4.22 (match) · 13 history records