Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb169…bb17 politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,294 (+1%) realized +$1,293 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 130L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,392per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$326
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$184
politics 36% −$94
sports 13% +$1,513
culture 3% −$8
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$4
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 113 -9.3% -18.0% 7% 5% -9.2%
all 157 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 11% -9.0%
10% -18.7% 11% -17.7%
15% -26.5% 10% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,927) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$8 · ×10.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$1,293
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,392
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $707 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $499 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,766 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $709 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,416 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $928 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,734 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,628 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $2,031 −$2 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $396 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,173 −$5 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $3,475 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $744 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,192 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $488 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $570 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $44 +$35 +79%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $5,273 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 +$27 +50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $63 +$104 +165%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $419 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $69 +$34 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $706 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $707 3h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $581 15h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $582 19h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $657 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $658 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $537 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $538 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $692 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $693 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $499 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $499 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $527 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $527 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $631 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $632 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $539 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $540 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $116 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $584 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $585 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $578 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $579 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $796 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $798 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $727 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $728 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $66 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.12 · official $116.12 (match) · 525 history records