Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B1 0xb169…e23e other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$282
14 days+$263
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$281
sports 40% $0
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.7% -15.6% 17% 17% +46.0%
≤30d 13 -6.9% -15.8% 23% 23% +28.9%
≤90d 13 -6.9% -15.8% 23% 23% +28.9%
all 13 -6.9% -15.8% 23% 23% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 23% +28.9%
10% -23.8% 23% +16.5%
15% -31.2% 15% +5.3%
20% -37.9% 15% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$6 · ×17.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.23 per $1 lost it wins $5.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 26
History coverage15d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance France 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance Argentina 94¢ 93¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance United States 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+161%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Jun 28 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 28 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 28 $206 +$310 +151%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $34 −$14 -40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $14 +$10 +71%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $35 −$10 -29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 −$14 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $108 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance BUY Argentina 94¢ $100 1h
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance BUY United States 83¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 88¢ $100 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 77¢ $98 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 12¢ $25 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 94¢ $24 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $14 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 13¢ $25 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 39¢ $206 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.48 · official $616.48 (match) · 68 history records