Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb167…abdb sports 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-3%) realized −$117 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate75%219W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$53
14 days−$74
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$147
crypto 0% $0
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.9% -25.7% 71% 12% -18.8%
≤30d 222 -12.4% -20.7% 74% 18% -12.6%
≤90d 292 -10.1% -18.6% 75% 21% -12.2%
all 292 -10.1% -18.6% 75% 21% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 21% -12.2%
10% -26.4% 5% -20.6%
15% -33.5% 1% -28.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses219 / 73
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)292 / 294
History coverage40d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Ilia Simakin 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $8 −$1 -10%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $16 +$1 +8%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $52 −$19 -37%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $45 +$4 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $19 −$9 -46%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $55 +$4 +6%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $37 +$3 +9%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $34 +$2 +7%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Jessica Pieri Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $32 +$2 +7%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $30 +$4 +12%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $29 +$1 +4%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $26 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $2 $0 -7%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $29 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $28 +$1 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $27 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $26 $0 +2%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $3 $0 +13%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $27 −$1 -4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $22 +$2 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $3 −$1 -33%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
ITF Sumter: Reese Brantmeier vs Cadence Brace Jun 06 $22 −$1 -4%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $19 −$1 -5%
ITF Lakewood: Iiro Vasa vs Oliver Ojakaar Jun 06 $21 −$1 -5%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $21 −$2 -10%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $19 +$1 +6%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Liam Draxl Jun 06 $21 −$2 -8%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lorenzo Gagliardo vs Anton Arzhankin Jun 06 $16 +$2 +9%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $2 −$1 -49%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $18 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $2 −$1 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $19 $0 -2%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 100¢ $31 19m
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 22¢ $1 53m
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta SELL Tomasz Berkieta $0 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 98¢ $6 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 13¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 90¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 91¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 69¢ $7 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 46¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 74¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 76¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 77¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 39¢ $2 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 68¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 79¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 84¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 92¢ $1 3h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 92¢ $1 3h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 88¢ $1 3h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 93¢ $1 3h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 84¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic $1 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 96¢ $5 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 97¢ $5 4h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 100¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 70¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 38¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 70¢ $1 4h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 98¢ $1 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.05 · official $31.05 (match) · 756 history records