Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb166…4b37 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+0%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 52L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$15
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 59% −$14
politics 20% −$12
other 16% −$5
sports 2% +$143
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 61 +10.1% -0.4% 26% 21% -7.7%
all 70 +8.7% -1.6% 26% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 19% -9.1%
10% -11.0% 19% -17.8%
15% -19.6% 17% -25.7%
20% -27.5% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage576d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $12 +$14 +119%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $196 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $392 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $16 +$12 +72%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $16 +$12 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 22h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 25h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 44h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $88 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $3 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $12 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.17 · official $88.17 (match) · 274 history records