Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb163…6062
other · 154 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$73 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$99 · open +$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$605
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses92 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 154
History coverage459d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 3 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$26
14 days+$76
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? No 94¢ 98¢ $363 $378 +$14 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? No 85¢ 98¢ $68 $78 +$10 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $141 +$14 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 13 $204 +$10 +5%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 10 $12 −$7 -58%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 10 $2 +$9 +421%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 07 $124 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 05 $132 +$9 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 03 $56 +$20 +36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $82 +$4 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $139 +$18 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $126 +$9 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $55 +$4 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $54 −$14 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 29 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $300 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $204 +$129 +63%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 20 $284 +$13 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $85 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 3 May 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week May 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $102 +$9 +9%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? May 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $89 +$4 +4%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $200 +$10 +5%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 11 $200 +$20 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 Apr 06 $233 −$227 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 Apr 06 $237 −$4 -2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $201 +$25 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $7 +$3 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $200 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? Mar 31 $198 +$43 +22%
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? Mar 31 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? Mar 27 $170 −$7 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 81 million or more views on day 6? Mar 27 $244 +$13 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 27 $121 +$13 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 76 and 77 million views on day 6 Mar 26 $106 +$5 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 80 million or more views on day 5? Mar 26 $102 +$4 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 73 and 74 million views on day 4 Mar 25 $94 +$8 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 4 Mar 25 $30 −$10 -35%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4 Mar 25 $26 −$24 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 68 and 71 million views on day 3 Mar 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 62 million views on day 3 Mar 24 $86 +$15 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $117 +$4 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $46 −$31 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 24 $588 −$244 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% −$114
crypto 27% −$68
world 8% +$121
sports 3% −$30
politics 2% +$11
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 95¢ $177 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $148 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 94¢ $188 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? SELL No 100¢ $214 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 85¢ $69 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $7 2d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 70¢ $12 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 95¢ $204 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $124 6d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 72¢ $6 6d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 60¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $141 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 100¢ $141 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $124 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL No 98¢ $76 10d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 SELL No 100¢ $85 10d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 BUY No 95¢ $82 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $81 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 93¢ $11 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 93¢ $120 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL No 98¢ $136 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL No 100¢ $60 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 71¢ $56 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +47.3% +33.3% 67% 17% -4.7%
≤30d 25 +13.8% +3.0% 84% 20% -3.5%
≤90d 47 +2.2% -7.6% 74% 21% -8.7%
all 151 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 28% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 28% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 16% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 11% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.66 · official $604.66 (match) · 424 history records