Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B1 0xb163…6048 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$11
politics 35% −$9
economics 7% −$2
sports 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -2.2% -11.5% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 105 +1.9% -7.8% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -24.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage118d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $263 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $371 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $368 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $393 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $388 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $341 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $382 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $364 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 6h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 47h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $18 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 23d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 24d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 32d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 34d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 34d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 34d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $213 35d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $213 35d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 35d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 36d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 36d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 36d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $155 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.99 · official $22.99 (match) · 307 history records