Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B1 0xb162…9da7 weather 868 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,301 (+0%) realized +$1,301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%859W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$684per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$33
14 days+$73
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$427
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 244 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 862 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
all 862 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -16.5% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 53% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,099) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$335 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4,577
Realized+$1,301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses859 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)862 / 868
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$684
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,099 $1,099 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,099 $1,099 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,099 $1,097 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $920 $920 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $271 $271 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,065 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $356 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $976 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $398 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $431 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $827 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $973 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $491 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $713 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $941 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $991 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $387 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $717 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $853 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $404 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,099 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $271 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $312 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $786 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $834 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $265 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $892 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $308 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $76 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $59 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $999 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $869 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $230 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $993 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $21 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,577.45 · official $4,577.45 (match) · 3500 history records