Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb15d…558a world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+10%) realized +$61 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate72%50W / 19L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$65
other 17% −$4
politics 7% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 +10.8% +0.2% 67% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 5 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 40% -2.5%
all 69 +4.5% -5.4% 72% 38% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 38% -6.3%
10% -14.5% 26% -15.2%
15% -22.7% 13% -23.4%
20% -30.3% 9% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses50 / 19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)69 / 78
History coverage162d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 66¢ 94¢ $55 $78 +$23 (+42%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 90¢ $44 $59 +$16 (+36%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 69¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 75¢ 75¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No 70¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 21 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 21 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 14 $31 +$8 +25%
Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spee Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 20 $12 −$9 -77%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Feb 28 $55 +$14 +26%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Feb 21 $27 −$1 -2%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? Feb 21 $12 +$1 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 20 $40 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Feb 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter O Feb 18 $11 +$1 +5%
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? Feb 16 $5 +$1 +14%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $7 +$1 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $7 $0 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 09 $9 +$4 +40%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $2 $0 +2%
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? Feb 09 $2 $0 +20%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Feb 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Feb 09 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Merle Fraibel (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 09 $4 $0 -13%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe Feb 09 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Wolfgang Kindl (AUT) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Max Langenhan (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 08 $1 $0 +35%
Will Sander Eitrem (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mi Feb 08 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mix Feb 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mi Feb 08 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - M Feb 08 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Slovenia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026? Feb 07 $9 +$1 +7%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Feb 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Feb 07 $2 $0 +22%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 07 $3 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026? Feb 03 $2 +$1 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $16 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $15 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL No 85¢ $31 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 84¢ $7 1h
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $16 3d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 5d
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $20 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $31 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $31 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $14 12d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 75¢ $10 31d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $13 43d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $14 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $21 59d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $21 59d
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $9 67d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $10 67d
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum BUY No 70¢ $10 67d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 67d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $39 67d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 79¢ $6 96d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $6 96d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 112d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $35 113d
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $35 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.47 · official $288.48 (match) · 298 history records