Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb15c…604a
sports · 115 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$174 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$206 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$868
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 64
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 115
History coverage29d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 4 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$189
14 days+$190
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 19¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Anastasia Zakharova 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler McCartney Kessler 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 +$104 +510%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$32 -62%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -18%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $46 −$31 -66%
Sierra Leone vs. Liberia: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $15 +$14 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$13 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Denmark? Jun 03 $140 +$166 +118%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $96 +$27 +28%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $202 −$63 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $155 +$59 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 31 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $63 +$33 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -94%
Singapore vs. Mongolia: O/U 1.5 May 31 $103 −$28 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $22 +$29 +133%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 May 29 $102 +$136 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $31 −$11 -35%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 May 28 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC end in a draw? May 28 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $202 +$102 +50%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $51 +$58 +114%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $101 +$36 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $96 +$59 +62%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $44 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 27 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 27 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 27 $122 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $41 +$27 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$520
other 31% −$128
crypto 14% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 14¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 17h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 18h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 21h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 21h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists BUY Yes 6¢ $51 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $100 44h
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 6d
Sierra Leone vs. Liberia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 6d
Sierra Leone vs. Liberia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 6d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 6d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Denmark? SELL Yes 100¢ $306 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 88¢ $122 9d
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Denmark? BUY Yes 45¢ $140 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 42¢ $140 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.8% +26.5% 44% 44% +24.1%
≤30d 111 -4.9% -14.0% 42% 39% -7.3%
≤90d 111 -4.9% -14.0% 42% 39% -7.3%
all 111 -4.9% -14.0% 42% 39% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 39% -7.3%
10% -22.2% 39% -16.2%
15% -29.7% 36% -24.3%
20% -36.6% 33% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.64 · official $867.70 (match) · 204 history records