Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb15a…1684 other 29 markets active 6d ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$1
sports 24% −$57
other 2% +$17
world 1% −$9
crypto 0% +$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 5 +31.5% +18.9% 100% 60% +32.0%
≤90d 8 +29.5% +17.2% 88% 62% -8.7%
all 29 -14.4% -22.5% 59% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 31% -10.2%
10% -30.0% 31% -18.8%
15% -36.7% 28% -26.7%
20% -42.9% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage444d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $15 +$9 +63%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 25 $11 +$5 +50%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $2,826 −$3 -0%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $11 +$5 +47%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13? Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 19 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5 Feb 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 03 $12 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) Jan 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score Jan 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5) Dec 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? Dec 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will another team win La Liga? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in April? Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Cardinals vs. Reds Dec 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 19 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian El May 02 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Titans draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kanye name his token Hitler? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $8 +$7 +92%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 15 $9 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 11d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $14 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY No 65¢ $11 27d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,823 32d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,826 32d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY No 76¢ $10 67d
Flames vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 68¢ $11 75d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13? BUY No 52¢ $15 95d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 116d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,299 116d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1,299 116d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1,301 116d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 74¢ $12 137d
Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $12 137d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) BUY 3DMAX 75¢ $11 152d
Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $13 165d
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5) BUY Buccaneers 50¢ $14 187d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 410d
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in April? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 411d
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 411d
Cardinals vs. Reds BUY Reds 57¢ $9 413d
Will another team win La Liga? BUY Yes $1 419d
Will the Titans draft Travis Hunter in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 421d
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $3 421d
Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $6 421d
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days BUY No 100¢ $3 422d
Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian El BUY No 97¢ $3 423d
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 52¢ $5 438d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records