Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

B1 0xb157…0120 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$4,723 (-16%) realized −$4,582 · open −$141

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate45%14W / 17L

Whale WR25%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$857per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$400est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$4,000

7 days−$5,391

14 days−$5,391

30 days−$5,391

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	40%	-27.4%
≤30d	30	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	40%	-27.4%
≤90d	30	-10.3%	-18.8%	43%	40%	-27.4%
all	31	-7.4%	-16.2%	45%	42%	-25.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.2%	42%	-25.8%
10%	-24.2%	39%	-32.9%
15%	-31.5%	39%	-39.4%
20%	-38.2%	29%	-45.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,888) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +29% → late -42% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$652 vs −$830 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage

Net worth$1,209

Realized−$4,582

Unrealized−$141

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses14 / 17

Whale WR (big bets)25%

Est. fees paid−$400

Open positions3

Markets (closed)31 / 34

History coverage590d

Avg bet$857

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1,200	$1,078	−$122 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$50	$35	−$15 (-29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$154	−$154	-100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$154	−$154	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$506	−$506	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 17	$2,025	−$2,025	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$2,026	−$2,026	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$2,528	−$2,528	-100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$1,016	−$799	-79%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,015	+$944	+93%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$1,521	+$1,260	+83%
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	Jun 16	$512	−$379	-74%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$580	+$574	+99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$550	+$377	+69%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$2,027	−$1,281	-63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$612	−$60	-10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2,022	−$1,718	-85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$2,282	+$2,047	+90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1,021	+$505	+49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2,030	+$2,026	+100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$505	+$220	+44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$307	−$193	-63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$202	+$101	+50%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$304	+$33	+11%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?	Jun 14	$100	−$100	-100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 14	$256	+$1	+0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Jun 14	$1,888	−$1,888	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$102	+$282	+276%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$354	−$194	-55%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$506	+$355	+70%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 11	$51	−$7	-13%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$500	+$399	+80%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$6	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$1	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$5	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$7	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$4	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$0	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$8	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$1	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$1	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$6	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$10	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$25	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$2	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$10	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$4	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$6	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$50	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$10	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$10	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$3	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$5	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$7	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$4	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$1	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$2	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$10	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Austria	10¢	$20	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,959	2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$1,015	3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$1,016	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,208.93 · official $1,208.93 (match) · 121 history records