Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb155…ca84 sports 662 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (446 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,925 (-13%) realized −$4,110 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%294W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day446.5pace
Fees−$295est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,786
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (446 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 646 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 32% -15.6%
≤30d 646 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 32% -15.6%
≤90d 646 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 32% -15.6%
all 646 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover446.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 32% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 24% -23.7%
15% -39.3% 20% -31.1%
20% -45.3% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,537
Realized−$4,110
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses294 / 352
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions16
Markets (closed)646 / 662
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day446.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Cloud Rising 38¢ 100¢ $148 $392 +$245 (+166%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 50¢ 50¢ $246 $248 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 58¢ 54¢ $246 $227 −$19 (-8%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 55¢ 56¢ $159 $162 +$4 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 98¢ 99¢ $156 $158 +$2 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 35¢ $180 $131 −$49 (-27%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ 50¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Noah Karma 71¢ 94¢ $28 $38 +$9 (+33%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 64¢ 68¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 49¢ 50¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Ashley Lahey 86¢ 58¢ $34 $23 −$11 (-32%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 34¢ 36¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Amelie Justine Hejtmanek Aurora Corvi 89¢ 51¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-43%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 49¢ 60¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 28¢ 51¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grey Trac 15¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $58 −$21 -36%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $38 −$11 -29%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $185 +$215 +117%
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa Jun 16 $124 +$1 +1%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $255 +$10 +4%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Yujin Kim Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $73 −$33 -45%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $24 +$6 +24%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $24 +$6 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $40 +$30 +74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $42 −$2 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 +$34 +74%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 16 $90 +$2 +3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 +$7 +22%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 +$36 +874%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $80 −$60 -75%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $46 +$12 +26%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 +$9 +75%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $67 +$35 +51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$8 +24%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Amelie Justine Hejtmanek BUY Aurora Corvi 89¢ $18 2m
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Grey Trac 15¢ $3 5m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 33¢ $13 8m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 53¢ $21 32m
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Noah Karma 71¢ $29 35m
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey BUY Ashley Lahey 86¢ $35 41m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 47¢ $4 54m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 73¢ $7 57m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 89¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 61¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 50¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 50¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 45¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 45¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 45¢ $8 1h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Arina Varaksina 3¢ $1 1h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Arina Varaksina 3¢ $1 1h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Arina Varaksina 3¢ $1 1h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Arina Varaksina 2¢ $1 1h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 98¢ $36 1h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 98¢ $26 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Haruna Arakawa 1¢ $0 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Haruna Arakawa 3¢ $1 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Haruna Arakawa 3¢ $1 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Kamonwan Yodpetch 96¢ $38 1h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Arina Varaksina 11¢ $5 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Kamonwan Yodpetch 95¢ $31 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Kamonwan Yodpetch 98¢ $12 1h
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa BUY Kamonwan Yodpetch 98¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 47¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,537.08 · official $1,533.48 (match) · 3500 history records