Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb151…1ab0 crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$398 (+12%) realized +$397 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$591
7 days+$811
14 days+$811
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$795
sports 36% −$126
crypto 23% −$117
world 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -6.6% -15.5% 37% 34% +33.2%
≤30d 82 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 37% +5.3%
≤90d 84 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 36% +4.7%
all 84 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 36% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 36% +4.7%
10% -31.8% 30% -5.3%
15% -38.4% 25% -14.5%
20% -44.5% 18% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$16 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$397
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage30d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $119 +$210 +176%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $212 +$140 +66%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $101 −$11 -11%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $114 +$368 +324%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $87 −$73 -84%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $28 −$26 -92%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $36 −$34 -95%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $368 +$117 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$24 +32%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$8 +60%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36 +$73 +203%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $72 −$15 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$9 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $16 −$1 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $67 −$37 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 +$8 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $77 +$80 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$6 +110%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $329 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 52¢ $90 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 99¢ $482 6h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 9h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 9h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 28¢ $87 9h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL OXEN 0¢ $0 32h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 22¢ $10 32h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 37¢ $13 32h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL OXEN 19¢ $2 32h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 39¢ $5 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 32h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 42¢ $7 2d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 30¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $4 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.20 · official $15.20 (match) · 267 history records