Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb148…9355 crypto 180 markets active 19h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28,040 (-5%) realized −$28,040 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%99W / 81L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,157per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1,010est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,406
7 days−$17,214
14 days−$10,069
30 days−$10,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$17,125
sports 18% −$18,012
other 9% +$846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.3% -16.1% 53% 53% -30.6%
≤30d 22 +5.1% -4.9% 59% 59% -19.4%
≤90d 110 -1.7% -11.0% 57% 57% -12.0%
all 180 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 55% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 55% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 55% -23.2%
15% -28.1% 51% -30.6%
20% -35.1% 42% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$4,194) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,191 vs −$3,101 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28,040
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses99 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,010
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage231d
Avg bet$3,157
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 22 $3,449 −$3,404 -99%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Jun 22 $1,993 +$1,459 +73%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $1,470 +$526 +36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $3,109 −$3,058 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $2,049 +$1,071 +52%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $3,952 −$3,913 -99%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $5,055 −$4,994 -99%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $6,168 +$2,816 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $4,234 +$1,937 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5,836 −$1,625 -28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,703 +$3,160 +117%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,217 −$10,069 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $7,734 +$2,501 +32%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $4,924 +$2,807 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,006 +$2,921 +146%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $4,948 −$4,892 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $4,500 −$4,456 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5,319 +$4,126 +78%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4,552 −$4,500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,550 +$3,180 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,032 +$1,655 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,356 +$2,684 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 11 $1,001 −$969 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 11 $978 −$947 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 11 $1,000 +$824 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 11 $406 −$393 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 11 $466 +$373 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 11 $839 +$722 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 11 $1,637 −$1,584 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 11 $124 +$108 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 11 $76 +$49 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 11 $1,424 −$1,378 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $1,500 −$1,452 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 11 $1,300 +$824 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 09 $1,800 +$499 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 09 $2,000 +$876 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 09 $1,088 −$1,052 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 03 $1,788 −$1,729 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 03 $1,700 −$1,639 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 03 $2,000 +$1,488 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 03 $1,978 −$1,898 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 02 $7,000 −$6,796 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 02 $5,529 −$5,355 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $7,944 +$4,586 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $3,000 −$2,863 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 02 $7,208 +$3,746 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 02 $4,194 +$3,014 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 02 $3,000 −$2,862 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 02 $4,000 −$3,871 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 02 $7,328 +$3,866 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 56¢ $3,449 19h
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu BUY Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 57¢ $1,993 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $1,996 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 73¢ $1,470 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 44¢ $3,109 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 65¢ $2,049 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Alycia Parks 67¢ $3,952 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $5,055 3d
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 68¢ $6,168 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 68¢ $4,234 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $4,211 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5,836 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $2,703 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10,217 4d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $7,734 5d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $4,924 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2,006 5d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 62¢ $4,948 5d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 67¢ $4,500 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $5,319 8d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $4,552 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,550 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,032 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,356 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $358 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $343 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $300 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $623 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $355 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $406 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records