Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb147…beed sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,143 (-20%) realized −$1,664 · open −$479
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%40W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$1,728
14 days−$1,774
30 days−$1,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$2
other 48% −$2,152
crypto 2% −$11
politics 2% −$176
world 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 39% -28.1%
≤30d 91 -4.1% -13.2% 42% 41% -26.9%
≤90d 102 -5.8% -14.7% 39% 38% -27.7%
all 102 -5.8% -14.7% 39% 38% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 38% -27.7%
10% -22.9% 38% -34.6%
15% -30.4% 37% -40.9%
20% -37.2% 32% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$83 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,434
Realized−$1,664
Unrealized−$479
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses40 / 62
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions16
Markets (closed)102 / 118
History coverage81d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $310 $242 −$68 (-22%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 49¢ 8¢ $516 $89 −$427 (-83%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-45%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$262 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $66 +$32 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$62 +31%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $101 +$71 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $206 +$11 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$68 +442%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$278 +91%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 +$287 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$222 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$26 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$148 +146%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $406 −$406 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $303 +$136 +45%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,336 −$1,336 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $101 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $101 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 21h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 67¢ $66 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 23h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 23h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 23h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $304 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 12¢ $10 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 26¢ $9 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 27¢ $10 45h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $216 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,434.38 · official $1,434.20 (match) · 361 history records