Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb147…3830 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+2%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate91%29W / 3L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$100
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$160
sports 3% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.9% -3.3% 89% 11% -6.7%
≤30d 9 +6.9% -3.3% 89% 11% -6.7%
≤90d 13 +6.6% -3.6% 85% 23% -6.1%
all 32 +7.2% -3.0% 91% 34% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 34% -6.3%
10% -12.3% 16% -15.3%
15% -20.8% 12% -23.5%
20% -28.5% 6% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses29 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage138d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $460 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,012 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $523 +$39 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $741 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $346 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 16 $1,079 +$75 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 03 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 03 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 03 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 03 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 03 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 03 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 03 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 03 $78 −$64 -82%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 03 $65 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 03 $62 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 03 $58 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 03 $55 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 03 $142 +$14 +10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Feb 03 $104 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 03 $88 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 03 $80 +$6 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - Six Invit Feb 03 $20 +$7 +35%
Nets vs. Suns Jan 28 $18 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $459 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1,012 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $741 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $320 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,079 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $11 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $6 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $71 131d
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $65 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records