Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb145…e29c crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,312 (-27%) realized −$1,312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$252
14 days+$257
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,401
crypto 45% −$32
other 5% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.7% +15.5% 64% 64% +8.3%
≤30d 28 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 43% -4.1%
≤90d 30 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 40% -5.1%
all 32 -16.0% -24.0% 44% 38% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 38% -36.3%
10% -31.2% 38% -42.4%
15% -37.9% 25% -47.9%
20% -44.0% 19% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$139 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage360d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $305 −$87 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$29 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $121 +$53 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $204 −$98 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$156 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$144 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 29 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $104 +$123 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $110 −$108 -99%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 24 $1,500 −$1,017 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $40 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $96 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $121 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $102 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $100 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 51¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $260 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $248 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records