trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -943% |
| Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -118% |
| Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -5048% |
| Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -7611% |
| Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -5596% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? | Jun 13 | $0 | −$2 | -10297% |
| Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? | Jun 13 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? | Jun 13 | $15 | −$9 | -62% |
| Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? | Jun 13 | $11 | +$2 | +17% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on | Jun 12 | $152 | +$24 | +16% |
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath | Jun 12 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$2 | +485% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Jun 08 | $8 | −$8 | -99% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | Jun 07 | $3 | $0 | -11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 18 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 22% | 22% | -1.6% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 22% | 22% | -1.6% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 22% | 22% | -1.6% |
| all | 18 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 22% | 22% | -1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +10.4% | 22% | -1.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -0.2% | 17% | -11.0% |
| 15% | -9.8% | 17% | -19.6% |
| 20% | -18.7% | 17% | -27.5% |