Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb142…69fe sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-8%) realized −$27 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$17
other 30% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -42.2% -47.7% 31% 31% -17.9%
≤30d 16 -42.2% -47.7% 31% 31% -17.9%
≤90d 16 -42.2% -47.7% 31% 31% -17.9%
all 16 -42.2% -47.7% 31% 31% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.7% 31% -17.9%
10% -52.7% 31% -25.8%
15% -57.3% 31% -32.9%
20% -61.5% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $59 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 60¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $49 +$36 +73%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $40 +$31 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$16 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 16h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $49 19h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 37h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 44h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $40 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $20 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.94 · official $81.95 (match) · 25 history records