Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb13c…5e2d crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,488 (-47%) realized −$2,488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%27W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$424
7 days−$426
14 days−$426
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$778
tech 30% −$1,276
other 17% −$731
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -48.5% -53.4% 33% 27% -33.6%
≤30d 30 -48.5% -53.4% 33% 27% -33.6%
≤90d 35 -55.8% -60.0% 29% 23% -34.9%
all 85 -22.5% -29.9% 32% 28% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 28% -60.3%
10% -36.6% 24% -64.1%
15% -42.7% 20% -67.6%
20% -48.3% 15% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$60 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses27 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage343d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$84 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $317 +$87 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $306 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $123 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 19 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 19 $7 +$14 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 17 $4 +$11 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $116 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $16 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $403 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $317 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $338 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $133 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records