Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb139…29a1 weather 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%86W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$127
14 days+$86
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$148
crypto 7% −$257
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 77% 38% -6.5%
≤30d 120 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 38% -7.9%
≤90d 190 -11.2% -19.7% 45% 36% -10.9%
all 190 -11.2% -19.7% 45% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 36% -10.9%
10% -27.4% 24% -19.4%
15% -34.4% 15% -27.2%
20% -40.8% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses86 / 104
Open positions3
Markets (closed)190 / 193
History coverage42d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? No 90¢ 90¢ $333 $333 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 29? No 97¢ 98¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? No 65¢ 66¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $447 +$48 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $294 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $201 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $100 +$32 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $364 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $195 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $201 +$23 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $26 −$16 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $375 +$47 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $435 +$75 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $186 +$24 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $76 +$24 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $163 +$29 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $78 −$22 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $131 +$32 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$24 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $226 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 −$62 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$44 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $47 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 64¢ $22 37m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 89¢ $179 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 88¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $117 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $334 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 91¢ $183 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $48 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $128 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.95 · official $518.95 (match) · 838 history records