Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb135…1156 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$435 (-4%) realized −$435 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$11
sports 25% −$452
crypto 17% +$2
tech 15% +$3
culture 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 92% 8% -13.8%
all 14 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 7% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -13.5%
10% -18.8% 7% -21.8%
15% -26.7% 7% -29.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$472 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$435
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage94d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $867 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $866 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $858 +$8 +1%
Will "Ran To Atlanta - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 09 $856 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $854 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $854 +$1 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $40 +$18 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 13? May 14 $835 +$1 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 01 $335 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $310? Apr 18 $334 +$1 +0%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $812 −$472 -58%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $812 +$1 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 30 $811 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 27? Mar 28 $810 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records