Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb130…2823 sports 439 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-7%) realized −$116 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%245W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$86
sports 22% −$27
world 16% −$5
politics 4% +$2
crypto 4% +$16
weather 3% +$1
tech 1% −$14
culture 1% −$9
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 44% -4.1%
≤30d 11 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 36% -13.6%
≤90d 406 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 49% -25.1%
all 432 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 49% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 49% -17.0%
10% -22.8% 38% -25.0%
15% -30.3% 28% -32.2%
20% -37.1% 19% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses245 / 187
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)432 / 439
History coverage152d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 63¢ 74¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$17 +43%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $51 −$42 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$17 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$29 +52%
Set 1 Winner: Cristian vs Maia Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Cristian vs. Maia: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $5 +$6 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$2 -34%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele May 20 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store May 19 $5 +$1 +17%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will "The Silent Twins" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 10 $1 $0 +11%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 +$2 +216%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? May 09 $1 +$1 +61%
Torino FC leading at halftime? May 08 $1 $0 +44%
Will Mehmood Mirza win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elect May 08 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 07 $1 +$3 +262%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: KRX.C (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5) May 07 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $8 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $50 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 26d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 26d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 32d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 22, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $3 32d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $3 32d
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 32d
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region SELL No 99¢ $5 32d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 86¢ $9 32d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 34d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 22, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $5 34d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 47¢ $5 34d
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 34d
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region BUY No 97¢ $5 34d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.12 · official $126.12 (match) · 904 history records