Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb128…5014 crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (288 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$163 (-1%) realized −$157 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%77W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day288.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (288 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +82.3% +64.9% 50% 35% -7.2%
≤30d 158 +74.9% +58.3% 49% 32% -8.5%
≤90d 158 +74.9% +58.3% 49% 32% -8.5%
all 158 +74.9% +58.3% 49% 32% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover288.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.3% 32% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here +43.1% 17% -17.3%
15% +29.3% 15% -25.3%
20% +16.6% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses77 / 81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 138
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day288.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 65¢ 78¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 40¢ 22¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$27 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$50 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$101 +2940%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$27 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$49 +2040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$46 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$109 +1736%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$91 +1052%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$23 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$16 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$43 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$129 +1933%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$29 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$13 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$10 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$6 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.83 · official $26.06 · 3500 history records