Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B1 0xb126…520f other 6 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-24%) realized −$132 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$122
crypto 22% −$28
finance 7% −$25
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -118% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$44 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $150 $132 −$18 (-12%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Down 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$102 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $430 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 0¢ $0 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 0¢ $52 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 23h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 40¢ $47 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 40¢ $40 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $55 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $19 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $19 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $37 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $18 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $38 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 36¢ $1 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 34¢ $0 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 35¢ $34 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 35¢ $34 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 36¢ $28 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 36¢ $35 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 36¢ $35 30h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $3 30h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $5 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 39¢ $78 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 39¢ $12 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 39¢ $66 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 39¢ $78 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 39¢ $78 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 39¢ $80 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $93 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.37 · official $156.96 (match) · 33 history records