Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb124…7380 sports 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$333 (+6%) realized +$402 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%142W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$517
7 days+$353
14 days+$86
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$148
crypto 37% +$260
other 19% +$6
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -3.8% -12.9% 50% 50% +4.4%
≤30d 262 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 286 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 48% -0.5%
all 286 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 48% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -0.5%
10% -24.8% 46% -10.0%
15% -32.1% 42% -18.7%
20% -38.7% 37% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$402
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses142 / 144
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions12
Markets (closed)286 / 298
History coverage37d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 45¢ 38¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 31¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 48¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 28¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-51%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 23¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $102 +$231 +226%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $335 +$352 +105%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +110%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$18 +90%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$21 +206%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $121 +$53 +44%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $4 +$4 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 +$17 +83%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 9m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $102 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $96 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $335 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $20 12h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 12h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $10 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 12h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $5 12h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 12h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 29h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 33h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 38h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 38h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 38h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 38h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $10 38h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.85 · official $443.13 (match) · 539 history records