Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B1 0xb123…8e0e weather 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$371 (-4%) realized −$366 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%47W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$18
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$435
other 2% +$15
world 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 +8.2% -2.1% 82% 6% -16.0%
≤90d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 85% 6% -14.8%
all 52 +3.5% -6.4% 90% 4% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 4% -13.6%
10% -15.3% 4% -21.9%
15% -23.5% 4% -29.4%
20% -31.0% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$152 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$366
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses47 / 5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage176d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30? No 86¢ 88¢ $183 $185 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $153 $150 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30? No 92¢ 89¢ $151 $146 −$5 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $102 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $213 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $142 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 15 $321 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $405 −$18 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$21 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $177 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $308 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $196 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $202 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $147 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $245 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 5? May 06 $244 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 06 $365 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $230 −$16 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ap Apr 17 $276 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 17 $410 −$410 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16? Apr 17 $342 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri Apr 16 $199 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ap Apr 15 $251 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 15 $313 +$111 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $249 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 14? Apr 14 $313 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 9? Apr 10 $149 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 9? Apr 10 $539 +$23 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 2? Apr 08 $172 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 03 $124 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2? Apr 03 $124 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 2? Apr 03 $77 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25? Mar 26 $112 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on Marc Mar 22 $223 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 21? Mar 22 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 20? Mar 21 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 18? Mar 18 $60 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 15? Mar 16 $28 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 16 $84 +$6 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 14 $51 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 18? Jan 19 $99 +$2 +2%
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 15? Jan 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 15 Jan 18 $83 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 14? Jan 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 92¢ $152 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 97¢ $154 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 92¢ $103 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $138 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30? BUY No 86¢ $185 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $213 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $142 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $151 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $131 15d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $71 15d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $48 15d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $200 16d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $102 16d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $313 16d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $102 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 32¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $101 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $177 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $301 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $141 19d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $143 19d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $151 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $147 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $196 19d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $202 19d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? BUY No 97¢ $245 28d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? BUY Yes 19¢ $47 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.76 · official $720.84 (match) · 120 history records