Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb122…8405 sports 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$630 (-8%) realized −$636 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%201W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$178
other 33% −$317
crypto 2% −$28
world 2% −$49
finance 1% −$80
politics 1% +$2
economics 0% −$15
culture 0% +$20
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -69.7% -72.6% 14% 14% -72.6%
≤30d 9 -61.3% -65.0% 22% 22% -65.0%
≤90d 87 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 43% -23.8%
all 391 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 45% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 45% -16.9%
10% -25.0% 38% -24.9%
15% -32.3% 32% -32.1%
20% -38.9% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$636
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses201 / 190
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)391 / 392
History coverage137d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$6 +63%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$8 +81%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? May 09 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 +$15 +149%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $25 +$36 +140%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $25 +$27 +109%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$15 +152%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $10 +$15 +146%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$14 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 28d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 30d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 30d
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 31d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 37d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 37d
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 37d
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 37d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 37d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 38d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 38d
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 38d
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 38d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 38d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 39d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 41d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 42d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 45d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.68 · official $15.68 (match) · 1224 history records