Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb122…b065 other 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized −$99 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%67W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$13
14 days−$58
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$54
world 37% −$246
crypto 11% +$68
sports 6% +$139
politics 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 34% -10.1%
≤30d 86 -14.3% -22.5% 27% 22% -13.0%
≤90d 94 -16.3% -24.3% 29% 23% -10.8%
all 211 -11.6% -20.0% 32% 27% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 27% -8.8%
10% -27.6% 21% -17.6%
15% -34.6% 19% -25.5%
20% -41.0% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1,498
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses67 / 144
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions30
Markets (closed)211 / 241
History coverage115d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 56¢ $660 $684 +$24 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $284 $373 +$89 (+31%)
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 46¢ 81¢ $85 $148 +$63 (+75%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 61¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 27¢ 19¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Ghana finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 37¢ 47¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No 33¢ 23¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Germany win the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 25 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +252%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 22 $71 +$13 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -22%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $77 −$11 -15%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $36 −$3 -9%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $49 +$12 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $126 −$71 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,181 +$29 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 16 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$19 -17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$11 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +189%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $256 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 45h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 46h
Will Ghana finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 37¢ $15 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 3d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 3d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $53 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $150 3d
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 97¢ $84 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $98 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $62 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,498.01 · official $1,498.01 (match) · 693 history records