Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb120…3df9 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$501 (-31%) realized −$451 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$160
14 days+$178
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$185
sports 28% −$256
crypto 3% −$50
world 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.7% +15.5% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤30d 12 +38.2% +25.0% 58% 58% +42.9%
≤90d 39 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 41% -7.0%
all 76 -26.3% -33.3% 39% 39% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 39% -35.0%
10% -39.7% 36% -41.2%
15% -45.5% 33% -46.9%
20% -50.9% 30% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$451
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 46
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage173d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 10¢ $66 $16 −$50 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$145 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $30 +$71 +241%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +114%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$23 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +140%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $9 +$6 +62%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-28? Apr 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 23 $10 +$6 +65%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 28 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Mar 28 $14 +$15 +108%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $8 +$5 +66%
Brazil vs. France: Both Teams to Score Mar 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 +$8 +78%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $15 +$18 +117%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $18 +$18 +104%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-15? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-21? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-02-15? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-20? Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-07? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Mar 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $67 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $104 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $31 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 29¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $30 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $17 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $24 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $14 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $10 7d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 36d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 39d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 39d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 39d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 72¢ $15 41d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 61¢ $9 43d
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid BUY Real Madrid 64¢ $10 44d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 55d
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) BUY Villarreal CF 22¢ $10 56d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 74d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 74d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05? BUY No 60¢ $10 74d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-28? BUY No 64¢ $28 82d
England vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $14 83d
Will Austria win on 2026-03-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.19 · official $16.19 (match) · 145 history records