Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb11f…7ad1 crypto 1689 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-5%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%743W / 946L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$15
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -5.1% -14.1% 57% 47% -14.1%
≤30d 794 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 45% -16.5%
≤90d 1689 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 42% -16.9%
all 1689 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 42% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 42% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 40% -24.9%
15% -32.3% 37% -32.1%
20% -38.9% 32% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses743 / 946
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1689 / 1689
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1689 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records