Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb11e…1352 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$148 (-0%) realized −$147 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%6W / 53L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,440per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$22
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$47
other 40% −$34
economics 9% −$10
sports 5% −$74
world 2% −$2
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -3.6% -12.7% 7% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 59 -2.0% -11.3% 10% 5% -9.7%
all 59 -2.0% -11.3% 10% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,687) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,132
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses6 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,440
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $891 $890 −$0 (-0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $242 $241 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,034 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $298 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,562 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,737 −$5 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,607 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,614 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $413 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $758 +$1 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,192 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,024 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,687 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,588 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,545 −$3 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $3,293 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $6,269 −$6 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,218 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $3,458 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,461 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 09 $74 +$7 +10%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 06 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $1,768 −$2 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 05 $1,733 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $242 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 21h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 22h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $343 22h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $343 25h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $297 27h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $891 46h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,285 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,287 4d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,501 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,502 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,288 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,290 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1,494 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1,496 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,560 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,562 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,526 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,528 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,150 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,605 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,607 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,612 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,614 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,617 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,131.73 · official $1,131.73 (match) · 179 history records