Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb11a…a5d9 sports 1442 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$358 (-5%) realized −$338 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate67%926W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$736
14 days−$497
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$309
other 11% +$105
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 569 -25.0% -32.2% 44% 35% -29.7%
≤30d 1238 -5.0% -14.1% 65% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 1372 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 35% -12.0%
all 1372 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 35% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 35% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 30% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 25% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses926 / 446
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions70
Markets (closed)1372 / 1442
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 1372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 41¢ 52¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 65¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 61¢ 50¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Over 52¢ 49¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 34¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+46%)
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Set Handicap: Travaglia (-1.5) vs Biryukov (+1.5) Travaglia 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Kecmanovic Marozsan 43¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+117%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-23? No 79¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? No 50¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+53%)
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Medjedovic 68¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 40¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+61%)
Fiona Ferro vs. Kajsa Rinaldo Persson: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Viktorija Golubic vs. Sofia Kenin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 60¢ 59¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Medvedev 58¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jenson Brooksby 40¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 22.5 Under 53¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
McNally vs. Ruzic: Match O/U 22.5 Under 57¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 23.5 Over 46¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Brooksby 63¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 23.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Marozsan 63¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
McNally vs. Ruzic: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 22.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Fabian Marozsan vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 41¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gill vs. Gaston: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 +$3 +180%
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Parry Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Erel vs. Tabata: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Yanki Erel vs. Ryo Tabata: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +188%
Set Handicap: Tabata (-1.5) vs Erel (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $2 +$3 +138%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $2 +$3 +113%
Kulikova vs. Hontama: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $1 +$5 +900%
Tomic vs. Gannon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +250%
Set Handicap: Mrva (-1.5) vs Santillan (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Florian Broska vs. Lukas Neumayer: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +250%
Set Handicap: Bertrand (-1.5) vs Perot (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Set Handicap: Caniato (-1.5) vs Cecchinato (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Ymer vs. Searle: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Caniato (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Elias Ymer vs. Henry Searle: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
Shuai Zhang vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Set Handicap: Zhou (-1.5) vs Willwerth (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Set Handicap: Willwerth (-1.5) vs Zhou (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Benjamin Willwerth vs. Yi Zhou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +172%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $2 +$4 +226%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $2 +$3 +122%
McCartney Kessler vs. Katie Volynets: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Yeon-Woo Ku vs. Lucrezia Stefanini: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Set Handicap: Ku (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +212%
Jorge vs. Teichmann: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Matilde Jorge vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Marco Cecchinato vs. Carlo Alberto Caniato: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +165%
Linda Noskova vs. Renata Zarazua: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Shimabukuro Jun 16 $2 +$3 +122%
Set Handicap: Wiedenmann (-1.5) vs Seggerman (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Set 1 Winner: Jorge vs Teichmann Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Tomic vs. Gannon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Willwerth vs. Zhou: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +122%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 39¢ $2 1m
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Medjedovic 68¢ $4 8m
Elina Svitolina vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 71¢ $1 13m
Elina Svitolina vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 71¢ $1 14m
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Parry SELL Parry 58¢ $3 15m
Elina Svitolina vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 71¢ $1 15m
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 58¢ $3 20m
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Parry BUY Parry 51¢ $3 23m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 62¢ $3 26m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 28m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 28m
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 42¢ $2 28m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 29m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 29m
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) SELL Svitolina 52¢ $3 29m
Tauson vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 31m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 31m
Kulikova vs. Hontama: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 33m
Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya BUY Kalinskaya 36¢ $2 33m
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 34m
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) SELL Cerundolo 40¢ $1 34m
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo SELL Cerundolo 60¢ $3 34m
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) SELL Kovacevic 69¢ $2 36m
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) SELL Kovacevic 69¢ $1 36m
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 33¢ $2 36m
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo SELL Kovacevic 48¢ $0 36m
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo SELL Kovacevic 48¢ $2 36m
Kovacevic vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 37m
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo BUY Cerundolo 53¢ $3 37m
Enrico Dalla Valle vs. Alexander Weis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 34¢ $2 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.58 · official $164.71 · 3500 history records