Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb119…7076 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$27
politics 22% −$5
economics 7% −$2
sports 5% −$15
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -3.2% -12.4% 7% 5% -9.7%
all 108 -3.2% -12.4% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage87d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $232 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $369 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $371 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $375 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $375 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 14h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 19h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 21d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.03 · official $39.03 (match) · 290 history records